As of Thursday, January 29, 2026, the Austin real estate market continues to show signs of stabilization following the extreme volatility of the past three years. Active residential listings currently stand at 12,767, which is 10.9 percent higher than this time last year. While inventory remains elevated, it is important to note that active listings are now down 5,379 homes from the June 30, 2025 peak of 18,146. That decline tells us the market is no longer flooding with new supply, but it is also not tightening fast enough to restore strong seller leverage.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for January 29, 2026.
More than half of all active listings, 51.4 percent, have experienced at least one price reduction. This is a clear sign that sellers are still adjusting expectations to current buyer affordability and demand levels. Price reductions at this scale typically occur when homes are initially listed above market clearing prices. For buyers, this environment creates negotiation leverage and improved choice. For sellers, it reinforces the importance of pricing correctly from day one.
The composition of inventory also matters. Of the 12,767 active listings, 3,983 are new construction and 8,784 are resale homes. Builders continue to play an outsized role in supply, which has helped keep overall inventory elevated even as resale listings moderate. New construction remains more active than resale across multiple demand indicators, which is typical during late cycle corrections when builders use incentives and rate buydowns to sustain absorption.
New listings activity confirms that supply pressure is easing. Cumulative new listings from January to January total 3,129, which is down 18.2 percent year over year and slightly above the long term average by 3.4 percent. Fewer homeowners are choosing to sell compared to last year, suggesting many sellers are waiting for either price stability or improved rate conditions before entering the market.
Pending listings tell a similar story. Active pending listings total 3,650, up 1.8 percent year over year. This is a modest improvement and indicates that buyer demand is stabilizing, not accelerating. Of those pendings, 1,476 are new construction and 2,174 are resale homes. Buyers remain more selective in the resale market, where pricing flexibility varies significantly by submarket.
On a cumulative basis, pending listings from January to January stand at 2,539, which is down 18.7 percent year over year and 12.6 percent below the long term average. This gap between new listings and pendings matters because it directly impacts inventory growth. Year to date, there are 590 more new listings than pending contracts, producing a new listing to pending ratio of 0.68. That figure is well below the 25 year average of 0.82 and indicates slower absorption than what Austin historically experiences in a balanced market.
The Activity Index helps explain why. The overall Activity Index currently sits at 22.2 percent, down 6.4 percent from last year’s 23.8 percent. New construction remains more active with an index of 27.04 percent, while resale activity is notably weaker at 19.84 percent. This places much of the resale market in the contraction or danger zone, where transactions slow and pricing pressure persists.
Historically, resale markets with Activity Index readings below 20 percent experience longer days on market and downward price adjustments. That pattern is visible today across many Austin area cities and zip codes. While select pockets remain balanced or even expanding, the broader market remains supply heavy.
Months of Inventory further supports this conclusion. Current months of inventory stands at 4.54, up 12.7 percent from 4.03 one year ago. This places Austin firmly above the neutral zone and closer to buyer advantage conditions. In resale only markets, many cities are now operating between 5 and 7 months of inventory, which historically favors buyers and puts pressure on sellers to compete on price, condition, or concessions.
Sales activity remains below normal. There were 1,566 closed sales recorded this month. On a cumulative basis, sales from January to January are down 16.7 percent year over year, though slightly above the long term average. When adjusted for population growth, cumulative sold per 100,000 residents is 59, which is 18.6 percent below last year and 26.4 percent below average. Sold per 1,000 Realtors stands at 90, down 10.7 percent year over year and 22.6 percent below average. These metrics confirm that transaction volume is constrained by affordability and buyer caution rather than lack of inventory.
Pricing trends reflect a market that has corrected but not collapsed. The average sold price for January is $556,076, down from the May 2022 peak of $681,939. The median sold price now stands at $413,900, a 24.75 percent or $136,000 decline from the $550,000 peak. Median prices are also down 8.01 percent compared to 36 months ago, reinforcing that price normalization is well underway.
Price behavior varies significantly by price tier. The bottom 25 percent of the market saw prices decline 6.05 percent year over year, while the top 25 percent experienced a modest 2.56 percent increase. This divergence highlights how higher priced homes with stronger financial buyers are stabilizing faster, while entry level and mid tier homes remain under pressure from affordability constraints.
City level data shows that most areas are still adjusting. Five cities are up year over year, while twenty five are down. The Home Value Index indicates that 80 percent of cities remain overvalued relative to long term fundamentals, 20 percent are fairly valued, and only one city is currently undervalued. This suggests that further price discovery may still occur in weaker submarkets.
Market efficiency metrics reinforce the same theme. The absorption rate, measured by the sold to active ratio, is currently 10.92 percent compared to a historical average of 31.53 percent. This low reading reflects slower turnover and reinforces buyer leverage. The Market Flow Score stands at 1.06, far below the historical average of 6.57, signaling a sluggish, supply heavy market where transactions take longer to complete.
Looking ahead, long term appreciation remains intact, but recovery will take time. Using Austin’s 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.448 percent, if the current median price of $413,900 represents the bottom of this cycle, it would take approximately 80 months, or until August 2032, to return to prior peak pricing. This projection assumes steady economic conditions and no new external shocks.
For buyers, this Austin housing forecast points to opportunity. Inventory is elevated, price reductions are common, and competition is manageable. For sellers, success depends on realistic pricing, strong presentation, and strategic concessions. Investors should focus on submarkets where inventory growth is slowing and pricing has already adjusted. Real estate agents must guide clients using data rather than emotion, as the market rewards preparation and patience.
The Austin real estate market is no longer overheated, but it is not yet fully balanced. This phase favors informed decision making, disciplined pricing, and long term planning rather than short term speculation.
